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It has been several months since the Wall Street Journal published an interesting article proclaiming an end to the depression in housing prices. Citing the lowest inventories of unsold new homes since 2005, a 10% increase in existing home sales, and the first monthly increase in housing prices on the Case-Shiller index, the Wall Street Journal July 12th article announced, "The housing market has turned--at last." Economists from prominent banks like Wells Fargo and JP Morgan Chase are touting the housing recovery in the face of a sluggish economy. (http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702303644004577520414196790098.html)There are several positive things happening that could mean your property values will end their six year bungee jump. We have available the lowest interest rates since President Eisenhower was in office. The skyrocketing price of rental homes and apartments, especially in urban areas, has made reluctant buyers start to bid on homes instead of renting. This push to buy might be aided by better income. Record corporate profits have led to hiring in some sectors of the economy. And finally, realtor colleagues tell me there is a lower supply of well-kept properties in towns with desirable school districts. Without sounding overly pessimistic, I think we should all be cautious. There are too many things aside from the general economy that could keep housing prices stagnant, or drive them down even further. There are several reasons we should be skeptical of the claim that housing prices have bottomed.Lending conditions are tight and many prospective buyers across the country have had their credit devastated the past six years and/or are still paying down high interest debt. With some also dipping into their savings due to high unemployment and the rising cost of living, fewer people have the assets to qualify for a home purchase.In addition to questionable demand, there is also the issue of what we could call "pent-up supply." This comes from banks holding bad mortgages. The major banks have not put even a fraction of their foreclosed homes on the street. Analytics firm CoreLogic estimates that less than 10% of bank foreclosures have been offered for sale. Banks are waiting for a slight uptick in prices to unload their inventory. That would keep a lid on prices for a long time. Even more supply will come from the homeowner end. Many homeowners whose home values are less than their mortgage balance--the underwater homeowners--cannot put their homes for sale until they have enough equity to cover their mortgage. Any uptick in prices could get their home equity to par. Those who want to get out of the mortgage once they can will add additional supply to the housing market. This will further drive down prices.Lastly, despite record corporate profits, job growth has not kept pace in high-paying areas such manufacturing and some high tech sectors of the economy. That suggests high unemployment could be long term, regardless of corporate prosperity. And with the immense shipping of jobs to low wage centers in Asia and Latin America, we could see even more American joblessness--and more homes in foreclosure.Bottoms in any asset prices take time. They usually happen when everyone has thrown in the towel and few are selling. Right now, many are still selling, despite the much heralded summer uptick. Caise Diab is a nationally licensed Senior Mortgage Banker with Bridgeview Bank Mortgage Company in Downtown Chicago. He can be reached at c.diab@mybbmc.comor by phone at 312-506-8208The views expressed in this article are solely those of Caise Diab, and do not reflect the positions of Bridgeview Bank Mortgage Company, its management, or its affiliates. This article is not to be construed as advice to buy or sell a home, act upon a mortgage, or make any other type of investment. ...read more
By Bridgeview Bank Mortgage Company November 23, 2012
My clients recently have asked me often where I think interest rates are headed after the election. Are the record lows going to be just that? Or are we going down further? The behavior of the interest rate market in reaction to news can be a telling sign of where rates are going. Good economic news should send the stock market rising, and with that, interest rates. Bad news should drop the stock market and interest rates. Last Thursday, the unemployment report came out strong, but the movement of rates suggests that we have some room to move down through and after the elections. Rates opened strongly up on the good employment news. Then, throughout the day, they fell back to their previous day’s levels. This weakness in the face of good news hints that rates will go down in the short run. The long run will depend upon the economic actions taken by whatever administration wins this election. Will President Obama or Mitt Romney have a plan to boost home demand and home prices, thus raising rates? So far, both seem clueless on how to do so. President Obama’s main pillar of economic stimulus has been allowing the fed to buy bonds to keep rates low. That helps housing with a short term bounce, but does not create jobs that will help housing in the long run. Governor Romney has so far offered nothing more than tax cuts as job stimulus—something that from the 1980s to the present has concurred with a shrinking base of high paying jobs. Interest rates should stay low for the near future. Would you like to make a comment please call Caise Diab at 312-506-6816 or by email at cdiab@mybbmc.com. Look forward to hearing from you...until next week. ...read more
By Bridgeview Bank Mortgage Company November 15, 2012
When a consumer secures a loan from a bank for personal use, this is called a personal banking loan. If you are interested in taking out a personal loan, you might want to know about different types of personal loans and how personal banking loans work. ...read more
If you own a financial portfolio, you probably had to deal with an investment company. Since, an investment company usually handles mutual fund operation and has many responsibilities governing the way a mutual fund is taken care of. These companies receive their funding from investor and can be publi... ...read more