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Bay Area Housing Market Caps 2018 With Slowest December Sales in 11 Years; Mortgage Rates, Stock Market Volatility, Affordability & Other Factors Weighed on Market New data released today by CoreLogic shows a total of 5,341 new and existing houses and condominiums were sold in Alameda, Contra Costa, Marin, Napa, Santa Clara, San Francisco, San Mateo, Solano and Sonoma counties in December 2018. This number is down 13.2 percent month over month from 6,154 sales in November 2018,* and down 21.6 percent year over year from 6,814 sales in December 2017. Total December 2018 home sales in the San Francisco Bay Area were the lowest for that month in 11 years, since 5,065 homes were sold in December 2007. Sales have fallen on a year-over-year basis the past seven consecutive months. The December decline was the largest during this seven-month period. Since 1988, the average change in San Francisco Bay Area home sales between November and December is a gain of 7.8 percent. December sales have ranged from a low of 5,065 in 2007, to a high of 12,349 in 2003. December 2018 sales were 34.8 percent below the December average of 8,190. In December 2018, sales of newly built homes (detached houses and condos combined) were 44 percent below the month’s historical average, while resales were 33.3 percent below the month’s average. Ignoring the 2003–2006 housing boom that was fueled by risky home loans, December 2018 resales were 30.3 percent below the long-term average for the month. “Last month, the San Francisco Bay Area logged one of its sharpest declines in home sales since the end of the last housing downturn,” said Andrew LePage, a CoreLogic analyst. “Sales in the region fell to the lowest level for a December in 11 years, and the nearly 22 percent year-over-year drop in activity was the largest for any month in more than eight years. The decline reflects a variety of factors. Mortgage rates hit a seven-year high in November, affecting December closings, and stock market volatility created an additional headwind in high-end markets. Meanwhile, some would-be buyers remain priced out or unwilling to buy amid concerns prices have overshot a sustainable level.” The median price paid for all homes sold in the San Francisco Bay Area in December 2018 was $785,000, down 3.7 percent from $815,000 in November 2018 and up 4.6 percent from $750,500 in December 2017. The 4.6 percent year-over-year gain in the median sale price in December 2018 marks the second lowest for any month since January 2017, when the gain was 1.3 percent. The November 2018 median rose 3.8 percent year over year. On a year-over-year basis, the median sale price has risen for 81 consecutive months (since April 2012). Those gains have been in the single digits each month since September 2018. June 2018 had the highest ever median sale price: $875,000. “The nine-county region’s overall median sale price in December 2018 was the lowest since last February but still 5 percent higher than a year earlier,” LePage said. “At the county level last month Napa and Sonoma counties logged small annual declines in their overall median sale prices for the second month in a row—declines likely related at least in part to the wildfires those counties suffered in the fall of 2017. The median price paid for resale detached houses, specifically, last month fell year over year in those two counties as well as in two others—San Mateo and Santa Clara. Such declines can indicate a ratcheting down or leveling off of price appreciation, if not an annual price decline, but they can also reflect changes in market mix, such as a reduction in the share of higher-end homes selling.” Home sales of $500,000 or more accounted for 77.1 percent of all sales in December 2018, down from 79.8 percent in November 2018 and up from 75.4 percent in December 2017. Additional San Francisco Bay Area Highlights for December 2018: ► Absentee buyers—mostly investors, but also second-home buyers—bought 16.1 percent of all homes sold in December 2018. This is unchanged from November 2018, and down from 18.4 percent in December 2017. The absentee buyer share peaked at 28.8 percent in February 2013, and since 2000, the monthly average has been 16.6 percent. ► Jumbo mortgages accounted for 39.6 percent of the total number of home purchase loans used in the San Francisco Bay Area in December 2018, up from 39.1 percent in November 2018 and up from 39.2 percent in December 2017. ► Jumbo loans represented 60.8 percent of the total dollar volume of all home purchase originations in December 2018, up slightly from 60.3 percent in November 2018 and up from 60.4 percent in December 2017. ► Jumbo loans are those that exceed the “conforming loan limit,” which is regulated and varies by county. Nationally, the base conforming loan limit for single-family homes in 2018 was $453,100, but high-cost areas (including most of the San Francisco Bay Area) had higher limits of up to $679,650. A rise in the jumbo loan share of home purchase loans can be related to higher home prices, an increase in the share of sales occurring in the market’s higher end or the greater availability of funding for jumbo loans. ► Adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) made up 25.7 percent of the number of purchase loans used to buy homes in the Bay Area in December. This is up slightly from 25.3 percent in November 2018 and up from 22.6 percent in December 2017. ARMs, which offer lower initial interest rates and monthly payments compared with fixed-rate mortgages, are more common in the middle and high-end of the market where the impact on monthly payments is larger. Last December, the median price paid for Bay Area homes purchased with ARMs was $1,137,500, compared with a median of $785,000 for all homes purchased. The ARM share ranged from 5.3 percent of purchase loans in Solano County to 39.4 percent in Santa Clara County. ► Real estate-owned (REO) sales represented 0.8 percent of total San Francisco Bay Area home sales in December 2018, up from 0.6 percent in November 2018 and down from 0.9 percent in December 2017. REOs are foreclosed homes that lenders sold on the open market. * When necessary, November 2018 data was revised. Revisions are standard, and to ensure accuracy CoreLogic incorporates newly released data to provide updated results. c ...read more
By Real Estate Genie February 21, 2019
Well, that is a decision only you can make. There are several factors to consider. There is no doubt there are some good deals out there now. Will the market drop more? I suspect a little more, how much is uncertain...some have stated up to 10% in some markets. While other markets will remain fairly steady with less of a drop , if any. If you think you can purchase today and sell big in a few years I would reconsider. If you know you are staying in the area, homes are available that meet your criteria in the neighborhoods or schools you are seeking and within your budget then you should investigate and consider. If you find you can obtain a mortgage that is near or less than your monthly rent may be an indication you are ready to purchase and enjoy the tax credit. Before even looking for a home, contact a trusted loan officer who will process your financials and tell you exactly what you qualify for and how much money down you need. When I say process your financials they should request from you pay check stubs, bank account statements, income tax and a few other documentations.....Not just look at your fico score. Sometimes sitting down with a CPA will help guide you as to whether now would be the time to purchase or not. If you do not have a loan officer in mind I can refer some to you to interview and chat with. I get calls all the time from prospective buyers wanting to buy foreclosures.......thinking they are the best deals.....when in reality they could become your worst nightmare. #1-REO's are typically priced at market value when placed on the market #2-Why pay $225000 for a REO that needs a lot of work when you can purchase for $245000 a move in condition home with upgrades and is not a distressed property? Not all REO's are bad. Some are actually in good shape. Some need updated plumbing, electrical and foundation work or new roofs. On non distressed homes you are better able to negotiate the costs either in credit towards closing costs, the seller to perform repairs and/or a reduction in purchase price. If you are a handyman or contractor , REO may be a better option....If you are not and you have to contract work done you may want to reconsider your options and choices. Are short sales a good choice? Absolutely.......while there are no guarantees the bank will accept the short sale, most will and if your offer is within their specs you can obtain a very nice home in most cases. You need to be patient. You need to understand the risk in waiting. You also need to understand you are purchasing AS IS.... do not expect the sellers lender to do repairs......while they may allow credit for closing costs... If your Realtor refuses to show you short sales they are doing you an injustice....Some Realtors will not show buyers short sales as they want the buyer to purchase a home that will close within 45 days with some certainty.......Short sales do close.......I know as I have represented many sellers as well as buyers in short sales. So is todays market a good time to buy? Depends on your personal overall financial situation and long term goals as well as job stability.... If in the market for a home contact me... I work the greater Walnut Creek area and surrounding cities as well as Oakland, Berkeley, Albany in Alameda County and Benicia in Solano County. ...read more
By Terry Osburn,Broker Associate March 13, 2011
After closing another short sale this past week again has been cause for reflection of the real estate market today. It does appear there is a more concerted effort by the banks to short sale vs foreclose. Having stated that sources I have researched these past weeks states it will take about 4 yrs to clean out this mess. When I entered into real estate back in 1999 it was a time of excitement and joy. There is no greater satisfaction than to hand the keys to a new buyer to their new home and witness their smile and excitement, These last 4 yrs have been anything but joyous HOWEVER knowing I can help a homeowner at least salvage part of their credit and dignity by performing short sales has helped. Homeowners if you have not spoken with your banks and you are in trouble making your mortgage PLEASE contact your bank and speak with them FIRST! You may qualify for the HAFA program that automatically quarantees a short sale will be approved and may also qualify for up to $3000 for moving expenses. The banks are working with short sales whether you qualify for HAFA or not BUT you as a homeowner must take control and call in to discuss your situation and hardship. Some homes will automatically go to foreclosure. It may make more sense to foreclose than short sale. No one persons situation is the same and homeowners in distress should speak with a CPA and/or a real estate tax attorney. A deed in lieu may be an option. I am not an attorney and I will not give advice. I will however promise to do all that I can to assist you and point you in the right direction and if a short sale is deemed in your best interest can help you list and sell your home. I know even today there are many homeowners who are literally paralyzed with fear and frustration and instead of taking action has just given up. DON"T ever give up. Investigate your options........DO NOT PAY UPFRONT fees to any company or individual who claims to be able to help you. If you would like to discuss your particulars contact me to set up a time to review your situation. ...read more
By Terry Osburn,Broker Associate March 13, 2011
Attempting to find the perfect piece of real estate to purchase can be overwhelming. Fortunately, there are a couple of places to look at property listings that take a lot of the legwork out by providing lot size, square footage and other features. ...read more
Marketing is an important aspect of operating as a real estate broker. To become successful, you need to have the right marketing tools at your disposal, and also know how to effectively use those tools. There are many tools available that can help real estate brokers market their services and achieve... ...read more