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Date — 25 January, 2018. Prepared by — A. Bard, Director of Research, Researchica, Washington DC. Contact —editor@researchica.org - - - - - — - - - - - — - - — — - — — - - — - - Title —4G Maximisation or 5G Fertilisation. Objective —How can Mobile operators Maximise their 4G while creating a Fertile ground for 5G? - - - - - — - - - - - — - - — — - — — - - — - - There are far bigger factors shaping the future communications than just the network Operators & Manufactures. The regulatory policies, merger resistance, fear of churn, competition, & obligations — the existing environment can’t be called much conducive for growth. It is the gains of the 2G era that has been keeping Operators motivated. Otherwise, Operator revenues have more than halved in the past 15 years, where companies like google, Apple, Facebook have grown by 400%. As 2G evolved to become 3G — the profitability reduced further. With 4G, subscriptions increased, however new costs like spectrum, equipments further impacted decline in ARPUs. Operators, in reaction, made numerous attempts of mergers, which would have provided monopolies and greater room to manoeuvre (via increased pricing), but regulators came right in the way. All this has left industry into a saddeningnon plus ultrawhere staying in business requires doing enough to prevent subscriber churn while spending as little money as possible. 5G Feasibility Check A great telecommunications system is the one that’s ubiquitous, capacitative, reliable, & available at lowest costs — to everyone. 5G, however in its current state is more suitable for dense areas especially because the propagation losses of mmWave band are very high. This refutes the idea of ubiquitous coverage & consistency, basically why 5G was brought into picture. Operators’ FWA attempt in the past had also not been so successful, e.g. Radiant, in UK. The enthusiasm of Verizon has however forced us to revaluate this topic again, applying new & different perspectives, so we did.The Result, alas, is not only the indifference, but which also solidified our earlier apprehensions and attested now more firmly that 5G FWA, indeed represents a very bleak case, at least in its current avatar. But then we also speculate it can not be the only strategy and might as well just be a calculated marketing gimmick, to make presence felt or gain psychologically over competition. Or at best a libation to shareholders, if not else. There is however more to 5G FWA than just Video, TV, & Content, which unfortunately no Research house is talking about. Mobile, for example, we have earlier proven in our research (r.Mobile Video Adaptation & Delivery), can never replace TV, hands down. There is a difference in a Substitute & an Alternative. And 5G FWA, as long as it remained a substitute -to fixed line, can not unlock the require growth on its own. All-said, Researchica feels, if gains could be made in time for the much required latency or capacity —basically what’s sought from an ideal pre or par 5G setup —blended with special Apps or Privileges, especially across the residential (business is already a given!) segments —could provide some interesting, yet not permanent, revenues for operators in the short term. Long tern planning at this time can be distracting where 5G Mobility must be more focussed upon at the moment. Because operators had stopped enhancing coverage a long time ago, 5G could’ve been “that” opportunity for the industry to evolve and level-up on quality of service and meeting those “unmet” consumer expectations. Yet again, an example of the microcosm impacting the macrocosm, richer operators [mainly Tier-1 players (approx. 15%)] have decided to go for short term gains [r. Ultra hi-speeds] — over long term gains [omnipresence, enhanced capacity & coverage, seamless consumer experience, consistency, & like]. Sooner than we’ll know, Researchica fears, the Tier-2/3 players will now start masquerading behind them. And issues that’ve been stymieing the industry will never come to the fore, let alone resolve ever. Yes, there are issues that deserve attention, but certainly not ‘let’s invent new generation’, could be the answer to everything. A ‘juke radio’, for instance that could help operators broaden their 4G coverage, allowing simplification of complex topologies (all in to one), for example, would’ve gone a long way helping operators tap 4G, & deploy 5G effectively, as well. So it can be said, popular, not rational decisions will impact the fate of 5G from hereon. About Research The report is not about Criticism. The above is just to give our readers a viewpoint; how 5G could’ve been different or better. The report is about now since 5G is being bequeathed upon, how can players deploy it while also maximising the returns from their existing 4G infrastructures, effectively? 4G Maximisation: Present & Future. 4G was perhaps the most economical network transition. Investment in 4G has been substantial, but 4G only required an upgrade to existing base stations, with new hardware and in some cases new antennas. Most MNOs did not deploy significant number of new cells, nor did they move to such architectures. Researchica expects 4G investments to continue; 5G investments will/ should not take off unless 4G is utilised to its true potential, that suggested, 5G investments would/ should practically start taking off from year 2020 onwards. Any soon will simply hurt the EBITDA growth. There are few if any services that can't be provided with 4G. A rational MNO would instead enhance its 4G capabilities to the fullest, monetise, and look forward to achieving pure 4G within next 3 years or so; while competing on price to tame any immediate threats 5G may throw —directly or indirectly— in the meantime. A ‘4G—5G Mixed’ or ‘Hybrid Approach’ will therefore reap better results. . .and this is what report intends to achieve. The pre-existing LTE networks are left only with 10% more capacity, making it less enhanceable. So Operators must take good time enhancing their 4G coverage, capacity, & use-cases, while putting special efforts into reducing costs to the lowest possible while introducing 4G—IoT, upto 10ms latent applications, across industrial & other uses, for example. There is up to 70% effective ‘4G-use in demand’. Besides 4G also offers a platform for testing feasibilities. If 4G achieved 20% of the 5G aspirations: enhanced capacity, outreach, speed, and serviceability; 4G operators can accumulate upto 60% of the growth, 5G proponents and admirers tend to stipulate for 5G. Thereon its gets easier and easier. Only 3 more well planned years can deliver upto 5-7 additional years of gain. Researchica believes as much as 90% operators can achieve such growth; with refined strategy, careful incremental planning, futuristic vision, & genuine desire. Later, additional extra spectrum in 3.5GHz can also be planned, for even better results. And then going for ‘mmWaves’ in the coming 4 years makes a lot more sense. Who should deploy 5G? The best option for operators would have been that none invests in the new infrastructure; keep the competitive position stable; and minimise their expenditure, while focussing on QoS, customer care, & innovation, whatever possible within the scope of the limitations. Especially in developed countries the new customer acquisition bears a very narrow room for profits, so growth for one operator will have to come at the cost of the other. Only under this scenario can we see 5G being deployed radically, which having seen the previous trend is quite likely. What about those who seem to have already declared 5G in 2018/2019? These trumpeters of 5G are bad musicians. Their achievement can be called anything: pre5G, 4G+, Advanced 4G, LTE Advanced, pure/ pro-4G, or like; but 5G. At best this will propel the 5G game, truncating (its) delay by a minimum 1-2 years; ultimately favouring key Vendors and Tier-1 Operators. Nobody else. Many Tier-2/3 category players, we’re afraid might take this bait and quickly or gradually vanish in the pursuit. Standards take time to develop and putting pressure on standard bodies can hurt collaboration and fair sharing among players. So the only way could 5G be deployed in 2018 is if it is a non-standard, based on developments within the R&D centres of the kindred companies. Such outcomes however have unhealthy impacts on industry and can lead to incoherent equipment performance, ultimately confusing the whole industry further fragmenting the economies of scale. “Researchica doesn’t see much weight in these claims as it’ll only be a badge of honour where they can call what they deployed was 5G and that they were the first, & like. But in actual it was just 4G.” Contrasting Views & Facts There’s a lot of wishful thinking going on. Europeans want to believe there’s no radio, costs too high, lack of standards — variety of aspects ranging from politics to harmonisation, bad economics, & all. However Asians —including some parts of Middle East, look at this as their shot at the opportunity to get ahead and lead. Besides population densities, and rise of Asia all tend to support this. Americans believe its very much happening and that they must steer the future for early mover benefits, while Africans & Latin Americans want to stay vigilant, participating in trials yet not committing for its sheer level of costs and uncertainties involved. ResearchICA observes there is ample solution available and costs too are manageable; given the diversity of use cases, more elements will now contribute to ARPUs & Operators’ overall profitability. And that the demand above all for 5G has to come from within the country, the government, citizens which further percolates into paying capacities of different individuals, support governments can (or will) lend (e.g. allowing assisted & shared access), demographics (revenue viability, population densities, suburbia/ rural settings, for example), including availability of the required spectrum. True, there’s no word out yet on ‘harmonisation of bands’; or proof of capacity or coverage enhancements (in live environments) for that matter, but Researchica is of opinion that industry has come a long way since the beginning, and availability of solutions will galvanise once players come forward and start committing to the cause of 5G, which is inevitable.It's a matter of when, not if, per se. Researchica projects upto 70% players will have actual 5G running by 2025. Inspite that over 72% will have pre-5G offerings ready by 2019. It is only 15-18 months or so, and Operators need to do a lot to catch up. Upto 60% efficiency in some cases over 80% efficiencies need enhancement. Interestingly 80% of the growth will happen only in just 2 years between 2023-2025. Period between 2020-2021-2022 will however register only upto 20-25% growth. 5G Economics With 5G there will be auction fees; new costs of deploying antennas at base stations, as well as equipment upgrades; costs could be more significant for large scale small cell deployments in sync with the 5G vision. A back envelope calculation reveals approx. US $2 to US $2.5 billion will be required to lay down the network (including Core (NFV/SDN/ Beam steering) —&— fronthaul (RAN/ small cells/ 3D-MIMO) for an ideal UK setup. Further breakdown of current ARPU average ($20) stretched across 10 years portends a no profit- no loss result. But given there will be new verticals that will for the first time come under the Operator radar, collective ARPU growth can touch twice in worst case and upto 10 times in best case scenarios. The 5G Vision —5G will create its own verticals! The previous mobile technology generations lacked vision. 2G, 3G, 4G — all came about solving problems of the previous generations. 5G is revolutionary in a way that it uniquely puts ‘solutions ahead of problems’. From genetic melding —to— modern weaponry, robotics, cyborgs —to food, security, agriculture, well being of the society, textiles —to automation, industrial applications, & more; here we introduce various visions 5G upholds and evaluate the extent on grounds of practicality & economics moving forward. 5G Fertiliser attempts to decode the resulting technological “singularities” that will emerge with the evolutionary advancements of AI, Robotics, Internet; its omnipresence, accessibility, & connectivity. Humanity is in the midst of a paradigm shift that will perhaps radically alter the course of civilisation and perhaps the evolution of the species. (There are over 200 killer use cases & models that report discusses in length.) ...read more
By Researchica January 25, 2018
You make the kind gesture and the GIFT ALBUM does the work! Traditional employee recognition gifts such as cash or gift certificates have a specific dollar value that overshadows the reason for your gift. And usually they get spent on everyday needs such as groceries or gas and a week later the meaning of the employee recognition is forgotten. There are over 23 gift albums ranging in theme and dollar value so you will be sure to find one that meets your employee reward needs and budget. And here̢۪s the fun part, every employee gift album is a gift the recipient gets three times! Once when they get the album. Once when they shop the album. And once again when the gift arrives on their doorstep.. For more information , email us at iventures.biz@gmail.com. We can help you improve your employee recognition program and customer appreciation efforts. ...read more
By I-ventures October 07, 2008
Small businesses can benefit from accepting credit cards. Credit card processing companies now recognize that you may need to take a credit card while away from your office and have made that easy to do with your phone. Credit card machines come in a number of sizes, and small businesses have a variet... ...read more
Making a living from home offers independence and unlimited potential. To improve a home business strategy, explore the areas of your business that might benefit from a change. Home office organization, marketing strategies or communication with clients may be areas in need of improvement. ...read more